Methodology
Methodology Review
Populus frequently reviews its polling data – and analyses it alongside other material – so as to try and ensure that our methods always reflect the most up to date information and thinking. As a result of our latest such review, with effect from the September 2007 poll for The Times, we have made a small change in the way we ask how people will vote. Our previous phraseology was:
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"If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Would it be [rotate order] Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, or another party - or would you not vote at all? If ‘another party’: |
Our new phraseology is:
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"If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Would it be [rotate order] Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP [Scotland only], Plaid Cymru [Wales only] or another party? If ‘another party’: |
With the previous wording some respondents were saying ‘another party’ in answer to the first part of the question and then, when presented with a list of some of the ‘other’ parties, saying ‘don’t know’. These respondents were treated as definite votes for one or other of the smaller parties (but undecided about which one), but further analysis suggests that they are more likely to be voters who are actually entirely undecided about how to vote – and should therefore be counted in ‘don’t knows’, not as ‘Others’. By including a ‘don’t know’ option with the second prompt, we are now able to re-route these respondents, rather than count them as 'Others’. We expect the effect of this change to be a small net reduction in the sum of support for ‘Other’ parties in Populus polls.
We have also taken the opportunity to include the SNP and Plaid Cymru within the main prompt list, for Scotland and Wales and respectively.
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